This last week has had a major weather anniversary for the weather enthusiast, and a scary memory for quite a few middle aged folks. On April 3rd & 4th, 1974; 148 tornadoes ripped across much of the heartland of America, bringing death and destruction. 315 people died that day and thousands more were injured. Billions of dollars in property was leveled. It has since been dubbed the super outbreak. Nobody was prepared for it or expected it, but by the end of it, it would change the course of weather forecasting forever.
Back in those days, we did not have all of the sophisticated equipment or the super computers that we have today. We did not have all the satellites in the sky either. We were pretty much flying blind. While there had been some research done on tornadoes, they were still very mysterious and no one really had a clue about their formation, or the conditions that caused them to form. The radar being used was designed to spot enemy planes, not tornadoes. The teletype machines could not type out all the warnings fast enough, nor could it prioritize tornado warnings over other forecasts. As a result, warnings would go out after the fact. These days changes all of that.
As a result of the massive loss of life and property, many pressed the government to take action. Funding for the national weather service increased. Grants to the scientific study of weather increased. Scientists began going out into the field to study severe weather and tornadoes by observation. NASA was involved in the effort putting satellites into orbit to monitor and measure the weather from space. Computer companies lent their expertise to come up with more powerful computers to help predict, forecast, and warn the public. An all out effort was made by all that in the last 40 years that has changed lead time from being after the fact to sometimes knowing days in advance of severe weather outbreaks and actual lead times in warnings of 20 minutes or more.
In April of 2011, on the 25th through the 28th, all of the learning and knowledge; all of the advancements in technology got put to the test. Days in advance, computer modeling was showing that another super outbreak was about to occur. It was one that would eclipse the 1974 record outbreak. Over those 3 days there were 358 confirmed tornadoes across 21 US states. There were 211 alone on the 27th. 324 people died as a result of those tornadoes. While this is close to the same as 1974, the number of tornadoes was double. We should have expected going on 800. The 2011 storms seemed to hit much more populated areas as compared to 1974 as well.
All of the technology worked. All of the years of study and effort did pay off. Lives were saved as a result. There is still a lot we don't know about tornadoes. Today we have an armada of researchers out there still trying to collect data that will help us further decode the tornado. Some day it is hoped that we will be able to tell the difference between which storms only produce small tornadoes, and which ones will go on to produce those killer, massive EF 4s and 5s.
Not to long ago I received a question from someone about ice storms. Today I want to answer the question as well as give a whole picture of what an ice storm is, and how it occurs, and the specific question as to why it occurs more in certain areas of the US.
An ice storm is basically a rain event where the rain falls into air that is at or just below freezing. When the water makes contact with objects, it then freezes into ice. This ice continues to build as long as it keeps raining and staying below 32 degrees. Water is quite heavy so once the ice reaches a certain point, the things the ice is forming on can no longer carry the weight and begin to break. Tree Branches and power lines are the most vulnerable, and of course anything that happens to be under those falling trees is subject to damage as well.
An ice storm forms when warm air is moving over the top of a shallow layer of cold air on the surface. Cold air is generally heavier so you can get very thin layers of below freezing temperatures that collect near the surface while warmer moisture filled air is thrown over the top of that cold layer. If the surface cold layer is too thick, you end up with ice pellets or snow. Generally you get ice storms on the north side of a warm front where the warm air is trying to move in.
You can get ice storms anywhere in the US, but as my questioner asked, why is it the mid south and south seem to get more ice storms than other areas of the country? These areas are more prone to ice storms because of their geographic location. You get ample warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the cold air streaming down from Canada is generally running out of steam in it push south. This provides the best environment for major ice storms.
Ice storms do have a beauty to them though, as well as the capability of being highly destructive. These types of storms can so devastate an area that it can knock it back into the pre-electric area for weeks. They can also be unbelievably beautiful when not as thick. It is one of the weather issues that we need to be prepared for as it can knock out power and transportation for extended periods. We also need to be aware of it's deadly nature. Falling objects, live power lines, and an inability to navigate are all dangers that can harm or kill us.
This last week was national severe weather preparedness week. During the week, the national weather service put out various themed preparedness messages each day to help to inform the public on severe weather and how to be prepared for it. Along with the NWS, many television (and non TV) meteorologists and severe weather enthusiasts also did their part to inform the public of severe weather safety. This is generally done in the early spring to make people aware for the upcoming severe thunderstorm season that begins in Spring.
There are several types of severe weather that one can encounter. They can come all at once or individually as each storm is different in its own way. The main threats from thunderstorms are lightning, wind, rain, hail, and tornadoes. Each of these can bring life threatening risks that are good to be aware of.
Warnings are not generally issued because of lightning, and lightning can be a hazard in non severe storms. Lightning is an electrical current. You needn't be struck directly by the lightning to be a victim of its effects. It can travel distances through objects and can even strike you indoors through conductors such as pipes or wires. The electrical charges will interfere with your bodies electric nervous system causing damage or death. It can also "pass over" the outside of the body leaving burns. Many people are killed each year by lightning. The catch phrase to remember is, when thunder roars, go indoors.
Wind, on the other hand, is something upon which a severe thunderstorm warning will be issued. Wind speeds of 58 mph or greater will cause a severe thunderstorm warning to be issued. This is the speed at which more significant damage begins occurring; damage that can cause injury or death to a person, or significant property damage. Power outages are also caused by the wind that can be more than just a nuisance should the outage last for any length of time. In larger wind events, power could be out for days.
Rain is not something that brings a severe thunderstorm warning, but is an inherent danger in thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms can produce very large amounts of rainfall in a very short period of time that can cause flash flooding to occur that can wash away, people, cars, and property. Prolonged periods can cause longer lasting flooding that lingers on. The phrase "turn around, don't drown" is put out to help remind people not to go into flooded waters and they can be deadly.
Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued for hail; hail that is greater than 3/4 of an inch in diameter. Hail stones fall at high rates of speed and when they get large can be devastating to property and can kill living creatures. Most hail is small, but in rare instances can get up to softball size. Hail of that size will total you car.
Tornadoes get their own special warning because of their destructive and deadly properties. Most of us have seen what the large tornadoes can do to communities over the last few years. The scenes of devastation can be apocalyptic and leave places unrecognizable and uninhabitable. Debris can also be carried long distances. Last year I was 30 miles away from a major tornado and had large pieces of debris raining out of the sky; pieces of roof and walls, insulation, personal affects. It was nerve wracking to realize that this was pieces of peoples disrupted lives raining down on me, and that some were likely dead.
Watches are issued by the national weather service when the conditions that could produce severe weather appear to be coming together in a region. They might be a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch, depending on conditions being favorable for their development. When a watch is issued, that is when you should already have your plans ready to go. Stay informed with your local weather reports and have a NOAA weather radio in case a warning is issued for your area. They only cost $30 - $40. It is much like having a smoke alarm. They are there for when you need them.
When a warning is issued, this means that severe weather is ongoing and will be entering your area. This is the time when you put your emergency plans into play. Many people are caught off guard in severe weather because they don't have a plan on what to do and often are left frozen with indecision and confusion. Some people just plain don't heed or take serious the warnings. Don't be that person. It only takes one time for it to be fatal or life altering.
And, I don't want to forget about the aftermath. After a severe event there may be a lot of debris about and downed power lines. You generally want to stay in place if it is safe to do so. You may have to help neighbors should they need it too. Your being prepared may not only help you and your family, but neighbors also. People who are not affected can help by staying out of damaged areas and donating cash to known charities such as the red cross who deal with disasters on a regular basis. Cash is best because these organizations know what the immediate needs are and they would rather not be inundated by other peoples throwaways.
Stay informed, have a plan, and help others if you can.
March has arrived. The old saying is that March arrives like a lion and leaves like a lamb. Judging by how this month is starting, we may be in good shape should the saying hold true. Around 2/3 of the US mainland has some sort of winter weather box affecting it. From Washington state to Washington DC winter is dominating the scene. Record cold, snow and ice are still ravaging the country.
The west coast is at least getting a respite from it's drought. Much needed major rains fell up and down the coast. So much so that flooding has become a concern. It isn't enough by itself to end the long drought, but it is a good start. Certainly we all would like to see the drought out there end.
Last week NASCAR kicked off its season with the Daytona 500. Weather played a huge role in the race delaying it for hours. The weather there should be a wake up call (another one) for outdoor event operators. They had 150,000 plus people out in the open with no shelter and a tornado warning heading dangerously close to the track. Reports from the track through social networks like twitter described chaotic scenes of people running about looking for any kind of safety, and not finding it. This was within a couple of miles of being one of the greatest natural disasters we have ever had in this country. Outdoor event organizers need to take weather seriously and have plans in place to execute should the need arise. One of these days, it will happen.
This time of year, many counties in places that experience tornadoes (which is most) have their severe weather and storm spotter training courses. These are usually about 3 hours long and give you a simple overview of what to look for and where to look for it when it comes to severe weather types and a quick overview of cloud structures that will help you identify possible tornadoes. Find your local National Weather Service web page for times and locations in your area. Severe weather spotters are invaluable in getting the ground truth of what a storm is doing that radar alone cannot do. This can be life saving work while also allowing one to indulge in a passion for nature and storms.
Storm Spotters are a little different than chasers. Spotters often work with local emergency management agencies and are assigned locations from which they will report conditions back to the central office. Their assignment is to protect their community from their post. Chasers also do spotting and reporting, but they are generally independent of local government. They could be media, researchers, or general enthusiasts. The main goal of all of these should be the same, the safety of the public at large.
I had talked about a pattern change last week and the pattern did indeed change and the Northwest was opened up to a series of storms that brought much needed rains to the region. Maybe it was too much of a good thing. Snows in Seattle stopped traffic, and rains in California brought flooding. They will need a continuance of this pattern to get out of their long tern drought though, and especially in the southwest, that pattern will have to include them. The drought there is leaving people fighting over water rights and asking the federal government to put the lives of people ahead of the lives of fish. That is how bad it has gotten there.
The southern plains came out of its deep freeze and got to enjoy some spring type weather, and at least in the northern plains and great lakes, there has been some lessening of the bitter arctic air. Snow systems still are hitting the area with shots of moderate snows and the piles continue to grow higher. Chicago is over 5 feet of snow for the season and more is surely on the way.
The east was once again pummeled by a major storm that dumped up to two feet of snow and ice storms that caused power outages to hundreds of thousands. Cities were once again left as parking lots as transportation became impossible. At least folks in the southeast rebounded quickly back to warmer weather, but cold stays holding on in the northeast.
The coming week holds promise of a warmup in many areas struggling with cold and snow. Rapidly melting snow on frozen ground though is a recipe for flooding, and that is certainly a concern. Also with the warmer weather, the mid Mississippi valley could see a severe storm outbreak later in the week. Certainly the ingredients are present and even 5 days out, the Storms Prediction Center has put out a notice on this possibility.
The longer range outlook going beyond next week is starting to look like a return to the pattern that we have had most of the winter with cold air returning to the eastern half of the country and warm and dry in the west. This would mean more cold and snow in areas which want nothing more than for spring to arrive.
This I believe was in Charlotte NC during last weeks winter storm. Traffic nightmares.
IN upstate NY, it was hard to find ones vehicles.
Even Buses in Virginia were snowed in.
Snow and palm trees you don't often see together, but there it was in South Carolina.
It was quite the week in weather for the last week of
January!The week began with another
arctic blast into the upper Midwest and great lakes that pushed its way down
into the deep south.Small clipper
systems with high winds plagued the Midwest too creating blizzard like
conditions That had everything closed down and thousands of people stuck in
snow.Another system swept the south
early in the week creating disastrous traffic conditions in major metropolitan
areas.Entire cities like Atlanta and
Birmingham were in entire gridlock.People were stranded intheir cars, students in school busses all having
to spend over 24 hours stuck with no way to get out.The west remained dry and water restrictions
were being put in place with admonitions to not even flush the toilet every
time.The week ends with a pattern
change that looks to bring a series of large snowstorms across the plains and
into the great lakes that could have people digging out 2 feet of snow.
This winter being so harsh in so many places is putting a strain on
resources.Many communities are running
low on salt and are having to limit their salting to major roadways, leaving
side streets and rural roads untreated.States like Illinois and Missouri have had to make declarations because
of a shortage of propane which is leaving many people without heat in the
brutal arctic air.Manpower of government
services are stretched thin.Police,
fire, and ambulance services have more than they can handle with the many many
accidents.Plow drivers are getting
little rest as the snow piles up and blows around faster than they can keep up
with.
In this time of hardship we do see many good things that people do for one
another.In Atlanta, chik-fil-a went
around giving away food to stranded motorists.Local residents took people in, or set up free coffee stands.A friend of mine who was stranded was taken
in by an apartment complex that had community areas so people could stay warm
as they waited up to 48 hours to get home.There were even reports of a baby being born amid the chaos of stranded
motorists.Even when the elements are at
their worst, many people moved to their best.
Another
week and another powerful storm system has blasted through the mid-section of
the country and into the northeast.This
storm was not atypical for this time of year and not record setting, but it was
potent and had a variety of ways of causing mayhem across the country.
When I began talking about this system a week ago, it looked like heavy snow
was going to be the big story.It turns
out that I was wrong.We had some good
snow totals, but really just a normal snowstorm.The really big impacts came in other
packages.
Rain was a large story as many places were seeing rainfall amounts in excess of
3 inches.Flash flooding and small
creeks and streams overflowing were seen from Indiana to the gulf coast and
from west of the Mississippi to the Appalachians.
Severe storms and tornadoes threatened the southern states.There were a few confirmed tornadoes, but
many of the storms packed winds in excess of 70mph and cause quite a bit of
damage.Downed trees helped knock out power
lines all through the south.Reed Timmer Tornado Chase
This storm also had an ice component that has knocked out power to hundreds of thousands
in Canada and the northeast USA.Lesser
amounts caused numerous small accidents throughout the Midwest and great lakes
regions.
The weather looks to be quieting down for the week ahead with no major systems
across the country.There will be a
little clipper system that will bring some Christmas eve and day snows across
the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region, but that is about it for the
next week ahead.Temperatures should
remain mostly in a seasonal range, maybe a little under average most
locations.
This was the lead story last weekend. A tornado outbreak strikes the midwest and Great Lakes region. 81 reports of tornadoes in 6 states damaging dozens of town and leveling several. Also hundreds of reports of severe wind and hail we recieved causing sporadic damage and power outages over hundreds of miles. In Illinois there were 2 F4 tornadoes, the first time such large tornadoes had struck the state in November since records have been kept.
As early as the previous Wednesday and Thursday, there was talk of a severe weather event coming together in that region. The storm prediction center even put out a graphic 4 days in advance for severe potential. As we got into Friday and Saturday, the potential for severe weather became more and more sure, and also more and more ominous. All the ingredients seemed to be coming together for a major tornado outbreak. It became so sure by Saturday that a High risk area was posted, which is a rare event. On Sunday morning they expanded the risk areas a bit. Anybody who was into weather knew... this was a seriously dangerous situation about to unfold.
All the ingredients were there, a strong low pressure system creating lots of wind, moisture flowing in from the south, a strong jet stream flying overhead from the west creating crosswinds at different heights in the air. Along with the moisture you had enough warmth at the surface and cold air aloft. The cold front coming off the low was bowed a bit forward rather than dragging behind with a sharp contrast in temperatures and wind direction. It wasn't a matter of if, but when would they begin to fire.
By 9am the storms had already begun to fire. There was a line in N IL near Rockford, and SW of Peoria some more storms had just formed. There were a couple of tornado warnings on the north storms for spotted funnel clouds, but they were soon robbed of energy by the southern storms as they developed. At 11:55am the first confirmed tornado was spotted by Pekin IL, just south of Peoria. It did some damage and moved on to East Peoria by 12:00pm and damaged up to 80 homes there. The storm intensified more before it moved into Washington by 12:05, a full blown F4 tornado that you saw at the open of the blog. As time moved on, more storms developed and more tornadoes formed and towns hit. It was truly a scary afternoon.
I was already on the road by the time the first torndao reports started coming in. The first tornado was on the ground for 46 miles and lasted 41 minutes (notice the speed? over 60mph). It lifted at about 12:36 or shortly thereafter. Very shortly after that I was arriving at Morris on the NE corner of the storm. All kinds of debris was raining down from the sky. Mostly it was construction material; insulation, shingles, little bits of wood. I knew something bad had happened, and that also I was not in a good location. It seemed to take forever to get out of there as there was traffic lights to work through and I got them all red and thinking, there is a tornado coming at me and I am stuck at this light.
I proceeded east to stay ahead of the storm, also hoping I could work into a good location. Then the storm began dropping new tornadoes. Braidwood, Coal City, Wilmington, Manhattan, then Frankfort. Each time the reports were moving NE and I was on a direct collision course with the tornado. I knew I was in the slot, with rains to my north and ominous steep rising clouds to my SW. The tornado I knew was just behind the feature to my SW, being abscured by rain from my view. The whole time I heard the sound of tornado sirens blaring into the afternoon sky. I just couldn't make any progress against this fast moving storm. I finally had to bail as traffic had become too slow to outrun the storm and I did not want to be stuck in my car if it hit. Good thing too. The map I am looking at shows the last report only 2 km to my south. How many miles is a km? That was at 2pm in Frankfort.
Upon my return home, I stopped back and checked out some of the debris that had fallen. Mostly it was construction material. I found a fragment of a hand written note and a piece of a bill from 1991. About 40 miles from Washington I found a piece of wall board about 3ft square. Hard to imagine that frisbeeing for 40 miles, but there it was. There was also a lot of sporadic damage from non tornadic winds; trees down, power poles snapped, garbage cans and such strewn about. It was also on my way home I began to hear the reports of what I already had known from the falling debris. Towns had been hit and severely damaged by tornadoes.
One of the oddities of the tornadoes that day was there seemingly targeting places named Washington. There was the town of Washington IL that was severely damaged by an F4, and further downstate another F4 struck Washington county. AND, the town of Washington Indiana was hit by a tornado also.
My prayers go out to those affected, and calls go out again for assistance to anyone within my reach. If you give cash to the Red Cross, you can designate it to be for tornado relief. I have to hand it to the communities though. They have very quickly sprung into action with their emergency plans they had in place and the relief efforts so far have been very organized and quick. Kudos to the communities, and the surrounding communities and businesses who have all pitched in to help. I hope it has been like that in all the communities hit Sunday. There were many.
November 7th, 2013 will go down in history as
having the largest tropical storm to ever make landfall hit the Philippines.This is a storm of astronomical proportions
that are rarely seen.The sustained
winds in the storm were estimated at 190 to 195 miles per hour. The pressure has been estimated to be near the
record low of 870mb.Tropical storm
force winds extended out almost 120 miles and the storm itself is nearly 300
miles wide. Those wind estimates were
also only the sustained winds.Gusts
could be as high as 250 miles per hours
The area was already in devastation after being hit with a 7.1 earthquake only
one month ago.Many structures were
already weakened or destroyed from that event.Now, here comes a 100 mile wide F4/F5 tornado to finish off anything the
earthquake had left behind.
Not only the winds, but storm surges will be devastating as many of the larger
cities are only 10 feet or so above sea level.Storm surges were estimated to be as high as 17 feet.Then on top of that there are waves that were
measured at 55 feet in some buoys at sea.So there you have a 7 story high wall of water crashing in during an F5
tornado like winds.
Right now we can only hope that the proper precautions were taken to evacuate
to as safe a location as possible for the tens of thousands in this storms
path. Communication with the landfall
area and surrounding places has gone completely silent.We’ve seen what storms like Andrew and
Camille can do, and this storm even eclipses those.Our prayers are with those in the Philippines,
and subsequent places as this storm moves on to Vietnam and Laos with massive rains
and still a cat 2 storm and rainfall measured in feet.
Update 11/8... New picture in of damage. Looks devastating.
This video only shows a small bit of what the storm was giving, and much of it likely more on the outer fringes. You would not be standing around filming in 195mph winds. There is nothing coming out of the landfall area at the moment.
Update 11/9: Reports of storm damage in the Philippines is just beginning to come out. Red Cross is reporting that as many as 1200 people are dead, and that count should rise as many areas are completely cut off with no communications and the path to them is littered with debris. The only saving grace was that the forward speed of the storm, 35mph, which was much faster than most storms.
11/9 update... Now that officials are beginning to sift through the disaster, they are estimating that more than 10,000 people may have been killed, and that is just in the one provincial capital where storm surges were 2 stories high.
Super typhoon Haiyan destroyed about 70 to 80 percent of the area in its path as it tore through Leyte province on Friday, said police chief superintendent Elmer Soria. As rescue workers struggled to reach ravaged villages along the coast, where the death toll is as yet unknown, survivors foraged for food as supplies dwindled or searched for lost loved ones. “People are walking like zombies looking for food,” said Jenny Chu, a medical student in Leyte.
