A Nation In Gridlock

It was quite the week in weather for the last week of January!  The week began with another arctic blast into the upper Midwest and great lakes that pushed its way down into the deep south.  Small clipper systems with high winds plagued the Midwest too creating blizzard like conditions That had everything closed down and thousands of people stuck in snow.  Another system swept the south early in the week creating disastrous traffic conditions in major metropolitan areas.  Entire cities like Atlanta and Birmingham were in entire gridlock.  People were stranded intheir cars, students in school busses all having to spend over 24 hours stuck with no way to get out.  The west remained dry and water restrictions were being put in place with admonitions to not even flush the toilet every time.  The week ends with a pattern change that looks to bring a series of large snowstorms across the plains and into the great lakes that could have people digging out 2 feet of snow.

This winter being so harsh in so many places is putting a strain on resources.  Many communities are running low on salt and are having to limit their salting to major roadways, leaving side streets and rural roads untreated.  States like Illinois and Missouri have had to make declarations because of a shortage of propane which is leaving many people without heat in the brutal arctic air.  Manpower of government services are stretched thin.  Police, fire, and ambulance services have more than they can handle with the many many accidents.  Plow drivers are getting little rest as the snow piles up and blows around faster than they can keep up with.


In this time of hardship we do see many good things that people do for one another.  In Atlanta, chik-fil-a went around giving away food to stranded motorists.  Local residents took people in, or set up free coffee stands.  A friend of mine who was stranded was taken in by an apartment complex that had community areas so people could stay warm as they waited up to 48 hours to get home.  There were even reports of a baby being born amid the chaos of stranded motorists.  Even when the elements are at their worst, many people moved to their best.

true southern hospitality chick-fil-a hands free food to drivers stranded in winter storm


Winter winds whipped up big drifts and kept plows busy early in the week in the Great Lakes.   Here is a plow clearing the way:

Gridlock in the south from a rare snowfall:




And a little video of the conditions I faced.  Sorry I swore at the tailgater.  =/



I would sure like to be able to get some warmer weather to report on.

More Crazy Winter 1/5/14

It’s been another wild week of weather across the Continental United States.  Extreme cold and extreme snow affected millions east of the Rockies.  Waves of snow and bitter cold are making this winter one of the harshest in decades, and some of the worst is yet to come in the following week.

Approaching New Year’s Day, much of the claims, through the great lakes and into the northeast were already reeling from snow and cold from a Christmas storm system when a combination of disturbances added to the woes.  A couple of weather systems known as Alberta Clippers Swooped down from Canada and brought moderate snows and reinforcing blasts of arctic air across the northern plains and into the great lakes.  The, a third system formed that dropped as much as 18 inches in the Chicago land area on New Year’s day, and then combined with the other system to form a strong winter storm that brought upwards of two feet of snow to parts of New England. 

As I type, I am sitting in yet another strong snowstorm bringing heavy snows to the same areas hit previously.  Parts of the Chicago area will get another foot of snow on top of the 18 inches received for New Year’s.  Areas from St. Louis to Detroit could see over a foot and blizzard conditions just before and at about the time of this publishing Sunday evening. 

Following this storm system, some of the coldest air seen in decades will descend into the US.  There could be below zero readings as far south as Nashville TN and below freezing readings down into Florida.  My brother down there informs me that a low of 19 is predicted in the northern part of the state.  Where I live, the High temperature expected Monday is 14 degrees below zero.  We will be below zero for almost 84 hours!  That’s 3 ½ days!  Places in the upper Midwest could see -40 to -50 degree air temps.  Wind chills will be approaching a staggering -80.  I’m lucky it will only be -22 with -50 wind chills where I am. 

I do have to say that there is some hope on the horizon.  After the dangerous record setting cold the coming week, the weather pattern looks to moderate some and become a bit more normal and less extreme.  Getting out in the 10 day and beyond range is not always very accurate though, so it just is something that remains to be seen.  You adjust though.  To me today, the almost 30 degree temperatures almost felt like a heat wave. But in just 24 hours it will be more than 50 degrees colder.


Snow covers a car in Chicago on New year's



No BBQ's any time soon.


 
Ice freezes on my windows creating amazing art.

Anybody see the road?  It's been hard to tell in many parts of the country.

The following link is to my YouTube video of me driving around during the New years day snow.

New year's Drive

Wild Winter World Wide

So far this December, the weather has been downright cold over much of the United States.  We’ve had 2/3 of the country under snow cover and sub-freezing temperatures all the way down to the Mexico border.  The cold has been from the Pacific to the Atlantic.  We’ve measured snow in feet in places and had temperatures of -50 degrees seen.  Once again this weekend, another snowstorm is causing problems from the Midwest into the northeast, with the possibility of an even bigger storm next weekend.  Over 2000 record for cold and snow have been set so far.




It has not been just the United States seeing this cold streak, but places around the world have been experiencing unusual cold.  Some places even nearly unprecedented.  Australia is having snow problems and it is their summer time!





While snow in Jerusalem is not unheard of, the large amounts they got recently have not been seen in 50 years.




In Egypt, There is not a person alive who has witnessed snow covering the sphinxes until now.




In Europe, massive storms with 100 mph winds have battered areas, the tidal surge was "the most serious" for more than 60 years.




Eastern Russia is seeing its worst flooding in 120 years.



China too is experiencing one of its worst winters in 50 years.




It’s already been an amazing winter, and technically it hasn’t even started yet.

Cold Air Coming.

Good day, folks.  Normally I don't do longer term weather predictions.  I generally won't go beyond a week ahead in forecasting except maybe to show something unusual.  There is too much variable in modeling to trust beyond 5 days or so, for storm systems.  However, longer range model runs can be useful in spotting trends.  Longer range is not good for precise storm tracks, but it an tell us that there may be a storm coming in general.

It is in the trends and generalities where I see some issues coming up over the next two weeks, and perhaps longer.   This first model graphic I am going to show you is a temperature model in the 10-14 day range.  This depicts some dangerous and deadly cold working into the area from the western great lakes all the way into the Rockies.  It has Chicago at -18 degrees, -25 into W IA.  And the cold is expansive with temps in the teens and 20s deep into the south.

 

Similarly, the next graphic is a departure from normal graphic that shows the potential for very cold weather.  If your average low were 20, you might see something like -12 for a low.  Remember that these are air temps.   There will be wind chills on top of this.

 

Preceding this cold outbreak will likely be a winter storm from the middle to the end of next week that travels across the country.  While details and locations can be difficult to pinpoint at this time, the trend is there.  Here is one models depiction of the possible snows. Notice that some parts of the upper plains could be measuring snow in feet. 




With these types of extreme conditions being possible, now is the time to prepare.  You need to be ready for being stranded for days without power in subzero temperatures.  The following link is a good list of the things you might need to be properly prepared for the extreme winter weather that can occur.

Winter Preparedness Checklist



The longer term trend that seems to be developing is for these same areas to be colder than normal for the entire month of December.  Where I am, we are going to have our coldest November since 1937.  While I do expect the extremes in the models to modify some, we will still likely be in some pretty extreme weather.  This is one of those forecasts where I hope I am completely wrong.

Early Winter Storm

Friday, October 4^th 2013:  This last week we have been experiencing one of the strongest early fall storms on record in the US.  From violent wedge tornadoes to feet of snow driven by tropical storm force winds, this storm runs the gambit of weather.  What makes this particular storm all that more devastating is that it is barely moving.  Temps on the front side are into the 80s, whole on the backside, wind chills are below zero.

Late last weekend, this storm plowed into the NW coast with high winds, record rainfall totals, and even a rare tornado near Seattle WA.   High winds throughout the western mountain ranges  were experienced, as well as severe storms.  As usually happens, the mountains kind of broke up the storm to some degree.



The Low then reorganized itself in the Colorado/Wyoming border areas and quickly strengthened.  Ample amounts of moisture from the gulf of Mexico began feeding into the low pressure and throwing it onto the back cold side of the low.  With ample juice from the gulf, and strong winds aloft, the ingredients were in place for severe weather.  On the backside, the rising landscape approaching the rockies is wringing out the moisture on the cold side where snow is being measured in feet, not inches.  Places from Bismark ND to Cheyenne WY are completely shut down by feet of snow with drifts two stories high.  Some towns in Nebraska and now NW Iowa have been devastated by tornadoes with a number of injuries.



As of the writing of this, we still have not come close to the end of the storm.  As the low slides ENE, severe weather is expected in places like IL, IN. WI, KY, TN and MO with OH and MI to follow.  I have not even mentioned the flooding in MN and WI either.



Sat Oct 5^th:  The Low pressure system, having not moved much, was still snowing in areas of the western plains leaving totals as high as 4 feet.  The cold front, having pushed well out ahead of the low did not have the same energy as Friday and thus there were only sporadic reports of severe weather.  Heavy rains and flooding have been the main issues Saturday.  We do have frost advisories as far south as Lubbock Texas, which is highly unusual for early October.




Meanwhile we have had Tropical Storm Karen out in the Gulf making its way toward the coast.  The inland low is the dominant feature though.  Karen has weakened to a tropical depression and is getting caught up in the cold front generated by the inland low I have been talking about, causing it t make a sharp right, hugging the coast heading back towards Florida and could make landfall anywhere from Tallahassee, to  Tampa.  Ample moisture and lift from the front will allow for copious amounts of rain to fall along the gulf and into Florida, but the wind shear should keep Karen at bay.





Sunday the system is expected to continue moving east, bringing the possibility for severe weather to the Detroit area and Ohio.  There is also a small chance for severe storms where Karen interacts with the cold front along the gulf coast.  It is not unusual to see tornadoes with tropical systems also, but Karen would have to pick up a little strength I think.  We may finally be rid of this system by Tuesday.

With this system, many have been without power in freezing conditions, have had their homes damaged or destroyed by tornaodes, winds, and flooding, been delayed and stranded.  We should always be prepared for major weather systems to strike and send us back into the 1800s without all the modern conveniences we take for granted today.  Having a plan and having made preparations can make quite a difference in surviving weather related disasters.

Update Oct 6, 5:30am:  A nearly stationary line of heavy rains has formed as gulf moisture is meeting up with the slow moving cold front causing flash flooding to occur.  The current main areas of the flash flooding appears to be in Kentucky where Lousiville and Owensboro areas are under flash flood warnings.  As of midnight over 5 inches of rain had fallen in Louisville, and that total has only increased, and the next slow moving line of heavy rain is at the doorstep.  Reports have come out of people stranded on the roofs of their cars.  Southern Indiana is experiencing flooding as well and rain totals are piling up in other states also.