More Crazy Winter 1/5/14

It’s been another wild week of weather across the Continental United States.  Extreme cold and extreme snow affected millions east of the Rockies.  Waves of snow and bitter cold are making this winter one of the harshest in decades, and some of the worst is yet to come in the following week.

Approaching New Year’s Day, much of the claims, through the great lakes and into the northeast were already reeling from snow and cold from a Christmas storm system when a combination of disturbances added to the woes.  A couple of weather systems known as Alberta Clippers Swooped down from Canada and brought moderate snows and reinforcing blasts of arctic air across the northern plains and into the great lakes.  The, a third system formed that dropped as much as 18 inches in the Chicago land area on New Year’s day, and then combined with the other system to form a strong winter storm that brought upwards of two feet of snow to parts of New England. 

As I type, I am sitting in yet another strong snowstorm bringing heavy snows to the same areas hit previously.  Parts of the Chicago area will get another foot of snow on top of the 18 inches received for New Year’s.  Areas from St. Louis to Detroit could see over a foot and blizzard conditions just before and at about the time of this publishing Sunday evening. 

Following this storm system, some of the coldest air seen in decades will descend into the US.  There could be below zero readings as far south as Nashville TN and below freezing readings down into Florida.  My brother down there informs me that a low of 19 is predicted in the northern part of the state.  Where I live, the High temperature expected Monday is 14 degrees below zero.  We will be below zero for almost 84 hours!  That’s 3 ½ days!  Places in the upper Midwest could see -40 to -50 degree air temps.  Wind chills will be approaching a staggering -80.  I’m lucky it will only be -22 with -50 wind chills where I am. 

I do have to say that there is some hope on the horizon.  After the dangerous record setting cold the coming week, the weather pattern looks to moderate some and become a bit more normal and less extreme.  Getting out in the 10 day and beyond range is not always very accurate though, so it just is something that remains to be seen.  You adjust though.  To me today, the almost 30 degree temperatures almost felt like a heat wave. But in just 24 hours it will be more than 50 degrees colder.


Snow covers a car in Chicago on New year's



No BBQ's any time soon.


 
Ice freezes on my windows creating amazing art.

Anybody see the road?  It's been hard to tell in many parts of the country.

The following link is to my YouTube video of me driving around during the New years day snow.

New year's Drive

Hyping the Weather

Monster Storm headed our way!  How will that affect your weekend plans?  Tune in at 5pm and find out the details with our Accurate 7 weather team. 

We’ve all seen those kinds of headlines and commercials warning us about the next “frankenstorm” or “snowpocalypse”.  It almost seems like we have the “storm of the century” about every other year.  We’ve gotten to the point where an 85 degree summer day is a “major heat wave that could affect millions of people” and governments have to open up “cooling centers” to save the lives of those unfortunate citizens who can’t afford air conditioning.

Granted, weather can be a killer and is responsible for a lot of people dying.  Yes, people should be warned about the potential dangers of weather extremes.  Many weather outlets don’t just stick to that.  They resort to weather hype to try and get you to watch their coverage of the weather. With often over the top catchy headlines and teasers, they hope to draw you in to their particular coverage.  It’s really all about the money.  They increase the ratings, and they can increase the revenue.

It is not just weather reporting that does this either.  Weather science has become a big business as well.  It seems that whoever can come up with the largest and scariest end time scenario about how we will be destroyed by weather, usually to due to how we have changed it, gets the most grant money from governments and private entities.  Man-made global warming has created an elitist class of scientists who get rich off that tax payers of the world.  Again, it is all about the money.

Lets not forget about the internet either.  The internet is full of “storm chase” and “forecast” groups that often consist of college students or recent grads who are a bunch of adrenaline junkies.  They are able to turn a harmless tornado going through an empty corn field into a life and death struggle as they compete with each other by the hundreds on who can get the closest without getting killed.  After seeing this mayhem first hand, I predicted someone would get killed soon.  This was one where I hated being right.  Again, this becomes all about the money as they get sponsorships, shows, interview spots on the news, speaking engagements, and other ways to fund the hype.

Even the government gets in on the hype.  Over the past several years there have been changes in the wordings of various types of warnings, and an increase in the types of warnings given to the public concerning weather.  These changes were put in “to make people more aware of the possible dangers associated with the weather alerts”.  In other words, they hyped up the warnings in the hopes of increasing their ratings (or the number of people who pay attention).

Don’t get me wrong.  There are very good folks out there doing quite legitimate work in all of the weather fields.  I am not trying to diminish them in any way.  What I am saying though is that there are a good number of entities out there from individuals to science to corporations where the accuracy is of a little less importance as is the all mighty dollar.  This is why the reporters are sent out city wide to report on the “big snowstorm” that only drops like 2 inches of snow. 

The effect of all this hype and one upsmanship on the public is much like in the story of the boy who cried wolf.  The public, by in large, becomes apathetic to all the hyper-warnings and then tends to ignore it when something actually serious is coming their way.  Rather than getting them to properly prepare for bad weather events, the average citizen will tend to dismiss the “hype” and not prepare. 

I don’t think there is any fix to this.  As long as there is money out there to be procured, there will always be those who will go over the top in an effort to get it for themselves.  In the end, we ourselves have to take responsibility to be properly informed, understand the true nature of risks in the weather, and be able to ignore the hype.  My mom used to have pens that had a phrase on them that would be appropriate concerning weather and hype, prepare for the worst, hope for the best, live for today. 

Forecasting or Fortune Telling?

Every day people read their papers, watch their TV news, listen to the radio or go to their favorite websites to learn about the future. They seek out people with certain special knowledge and inquire of them what they know of the future.   People want to know what is going to befall them so that they might be prepared for whatever is to come to pass.  No, we are not talking about tarot readers, or fortune tellers, or the horoscopes.  We are talking about weather forecasters.


Weather forecasting, I think, closely competes with prostitution as the world’s oldest profession.  Certainly the techniques have changed, but the overall strategy really has not.  While fortune telling seeks out special knowledge of the future through spiritual and mystical means, weather forecasting has always been a rather practical practice guided by experience and knowledge of the environment.


Even Jesus back in his days on earth used weather forecasting as a parable.  Mathew 16:1-3 The Pharisees also with the Sadducees came, and tempting desired him that he would shew them a sign from heaven. He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red. And in the morning, It will be foul weather to day: for the sky is red and lowering. O ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times? 


Modern forecasting is not much different than many of the old ways of prediction such as Jesus mentioned.  While we are much more technically capable and able to read “signs” that one could not in the past, all a forecaster is really doing is interpreting these signs and making an educated guess at what may come to pass.  Forecasters recognize the signs and trends and translate that as best they can into a forecast of future weather.


As we know, forecasters get a rap as being notoriously wrong.  Even myself in my forecast for my area today was looking to have cloudy skies much of the day and I wake up to bright sunshine.  Weather forecasting is said to be the only job where you get paid to be wrong.  While people do joke about such things, and it is true that forecasters can and will be wrong to some degree in their forecasts, they still are right more than they are wrong by a long shot.


Weather forecasters do need to be right more than wrong.  Weather effects so many things, from personal life to major businesses, from transportation, to construction, sporting events, and vacations, and of course, planting and harvesting.  Much of our life revolves around the weather and is affected by it.  This is why so many look to the forecaster.  They are trained to see the signs and trends, translating them into practical understanding for people.