Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts

Friday, February 21, 2014

Climate Change Realities



With all of the wild weather this winter, we have been hearing a lot of the same mantra we have for the last 20 years.  It’s global warming!  Every weather phenomena for the last 25 years has been because of global warming if you listen to its proponents.  Too hot?  Global warming.  Too cold?  Global warming.  Too wet?  Too dry?  No snow?  6 feet of snow?  All global warming.  Really, it is all malarkey.


We had the emails of the scientists who were at the head of global warming research leaked out with admitted manipulation of the data.  We had model projections of what should have occurred over the last 20 years, all wrong.  We’ve had mountains of evidence brought forth by other scientists that show the global warming hypothesis put forth is wrong, all ignored and the scientists attacked and blackballed.  Despite all of this, the global warmists march on like none of it happened.  They have been caught publishing doctored pictures, fake diagrams, and telling stories that never happened.  The media had to cover up the fact that a global warming expedition to see the melting ice got caught in a major rapid ice expansion.  So what is true?


The truth is, the climate does change.  It has throughout history.  It goes back and forth.  It did this long before mankind was burning fossil fuels.  Man though has short term memory.  Anyone over 40 should remember the 70s.  We were going into another ice age back then, we were told.  It only took 10 years to change that idea.  Back in the 50s there were a few years with large numbers of tornadoes.  Scientists though that perhaps the nuclear bomb tests had changed our climate.  In the 1930s there were climate worries because of the severe drought and dust bowl that helped make worse the great depression.  In the 1800s, there was the little ice age brought about by a volcanic eruption.  The climate is always changing, and scientists of the day tend to think that we caused it or that they can fix it.  We don’t, and they can’t.


Governments have bought into this idea of manmade global warming because it gives them an excuse to move in and control free markets and private industry.  For the good of mankind, the government must regulate and tax you and business and regulate all of your lives to help save the planet.  It isn’t about saving the planet though.  It is about power and control.  They have the money to buy and sell scientists to say what they want to put out, and the power to silence opposition to a point.



With all of the political wrangling though, we are missing a great opportunity.  Scientists could and should learn how to make honest long term models that can accurately predict our weather in the short and longer terms.  It is a matter of national security.  Our food and water supply are essential to our survival.  This currency is much more real that the paper dollars we print.  



With accurate modeling of future weather in the near and long term, we would know what to plant that will thrive in the expected conditions.  We would know when and where we needed to store up waters and make preparations to shift water supplies to where they will be needed.   We can prioritize areas where resources would be most beneficial to get maximum production of crops and animals while using the least amount of resources so we can ensure food and water for ourselves, our neighbors, and whoever else may need some. 


In conclusion, we need to look at climate change in terms of how we can effectively work with and around whatever weather we may encounter rather than this phony fight that claims to be able to manipulate the weather by imposing government control over lives, businesses and property. 

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Another Wild Week






I had talked about a pattern change last week and the pattern did indeed change and the Northwest was opened up to a series of storms that brought much needed rains to the region.  Maybe it was too much of a good thing.  Snows in Seattle stopped traffic, and rains in California brought flooding.  They will need a continuance of this pattern to get out of their long tern drought though, and especially in the southwest, that pattern will have to include them.  The drought there is leaving people fighting over water rights and asking the federal government to put the lives of people ahead of the lives of fish.  That is how bad it has gotten there.


The southern plains came out of its deep freeze and got to enjoy some spring type weather, and at least in the northern plains and great lakes, there has been some lessening of the bitter arctic air.  Snow systems still are hitting the area with shots of moderate snows and the piles continue to grow higher.  Chicago is over 5 feet of snow for the season and more is surely on the way.


The east was once again pummeled by a major storm that dumped up to two feet of snow and ice storms that caused power outages to hundreds of thousands.  Cities were once again left as parking lots as transportation became impossible.  At least folks in the southeast rebounded quickly back to warmer weather, but cold stays holding on in the northeast.


The coming week holds promise of a warmup in many areas struggling with cold and snow.  Rapidly melting snow on frozen ground though is a recipe for flooding, and that is certainly a concern.  Also with the warmer weather, the mid Mississippi valley could see a severe storm outbreak later in the week.  Certainly the ingredients are present and even 5 days out, the Storms Prediction Center has put out a notice on this possibility.


The longer range outlook going beyond next week is starting to look like a return to the pattern that we have had most of the winter with cold air returning to the eastern half of the country and warm and dry in the west.  This would mean more cold and snow in areas which want nothing more than for spring to arrive.


This I believe was in Charlotte NC during last weeks winter storm.  Traffic nightmares.


IN upstate NY, it was hard to find ones vehicles.



Even Buses in Virginia were snowed in.


Snow and palm trees you don't often see together, but there it was in South Carolina.



Sunday, February 9, 2014

Pattern change coming?




Another brutal winter week has ended.  Winter storms, cold, and drought continue to plague the nation.  However, there does seem to be a glimmer of hope; a light at the end of the long dark tunnel.    A pattern change in our weather is beginning to take shape.  




Most of the winter, we have had a large High pressure on the west coast that was blocking weather systems from coming in.  They had to ride over the top into Canada and plunge back down into the US, bringing with it, bitter arctic air into the eastern 2/3 of the country.  This amplified weather pattern allowed winter to even invade the deep south this year.  Relief is on its way.



A weather pattern known as the pineapple express, because it brings a moisture stream from the Hawaiian Islands to the west coast, is taking shape.  From Seattle to San Francisco we are seeing the moisture pump in.  This is breaking down the high pressure and allowing more storms in and flattening out the weather pattern for the rest of the country.  For the eastern 2/3 of the country, it will mean a return to more normal type temperatures.



It is too early to tell if we will get a flip flop, meaning the east gets a warm high and the west gets cold, but many in the Midwest and east might get at least a temporary shot of some nice weather. 





This year, Spring will also mean flooding.  There is a lot of water stored up in the heavy snows.  Expect it and be prepared for it; especially if you live in flood prone areas. 



During the week there was a significant ice storm that left hundreds of thousands without power in Pennsylvania and Maryland.  Other areas to the south and west of there were affected as well.




Folks in the west are still dealing with drought.  At least some relief will be coming for the Northwest and central west, but the southwest will remain dry.




Other parts of the country, this might be the best way to get around.





We could still have it worse.  This is a video from Slovenia, which was devastated by a ridiculous ice storm.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

A Nation In Gridlock




It was quite the week in weather for the last week of January!  The week began with another arctic blast into the upper Midwest and great lakes that pushed its way down into the deep south.  Small clipper systems with high winds plagued the Midwest too creating blizzard like conditions That had everything closed down and thousands of people stuck in snow.  Another system swept the south early in the week creating disastrous traffic conditions in major metropolitan areas.  Entire cities like Atlanta and Birmingham were in entire gridlock.  People were stranded intheir cars, students in school busses all having to spend over 24 hours stuck with no way to get out.  The west remained dry and water restrictions were being put in place with admonitions to not even flush the toilet every time.  The week ends with a pattern change that looks to bring a series of large snowstorms across the plains and into the great lakes that could have people digging out 2 feet of snow.


This winter being so harsh in so many places is putting a strain on resources.  Many communities are running low on salt and are having to limit their salting to major roadways, leaving side streets and rural roads untreated.  States like Illinois and Missouri have had to make declarations because of a shortage of propane which is leaving many people without heat in the brutal arctic air.  Manpower of government services are stretched thin.  Police, fire, and ambulance services have more than they can handle with the many many accidents.  Plow drivers are getting little rest as the snow piles up and blows around faster than they can keep up with.



In this time of hardship we do see many good things that people do for one another.  In Atlanta, chik-fil-a went around giving away food to stranded motorists.  Local residents took people in, or set up free coffee stands.  A friend of mine who was stranded was taken in by an apartment complex that had community areas so people could stay warm as they waited up to 48 hours to get home.  There were even reports of a baby being born amid the chaos of stranded motorists.  Even when the elements are at their worst, many people moved to their best.

true southern hospitality chick-fil-a hands free food to drivers stranded in winter storm



Winter winds whipped up big drifts and kept plows busy early in the week in the Great Lakes.   Here is a plow clearing the way:











Gridlock in the south from a rare snowfall:





And a little video of the conditions I faced.  Sorry I swore at the tailgater.  =/




I would sure like to be able to get some warmer weather to report on.


Saturday, January 25, 2014

A Broken Record 1/25/13



No I am not talking about the record breaking temperatures, or the record breaking snows or drought.  What I am talking about is how repetitive and consistent this weather pattern we have been in is.  For weeks on end this same pattern has persisted across the US.  It is like the needle is stuck and won’t budge, just repeating the same lines over and over again. 


For the younger folks who don’t know what a broken record that I am referring to is:



This next week again is Forecasting more of the same.  Extreme cold and snows in areas that already have had them, extreme drought in places where it has already been ridiculously dry.  Those of us on the cold side would like a little relief.  Can we swap sides for just a short while?  More record cold will be spilling into the Midwest and Great lakes with snow and high winds.  Temps will be below zero for several days.  Even places in the south are feeling it too.  Freeze warnings way down in Florida and a winter storm in Houston?



In a week or so we will have Ground Hog day, and supposedly the ground hog will tell us if this will continue 6 more weeks or if spring will come.  There is some weather truth behind the ol’ groundhog.  If He sees his shadow means 6 more weeks of winter.  What is really happening is that you have high pressure and clear skies in winter it usually means colder air.  If he does not see his shadow, spring will be early.  This usually coincides with warmer weather, which at this time of year is generally cloudy or foggy weather.  Plus, In the warmer weather there might be food to eat exposed which would keep Mr. Groundhog outside.




In Spokane WA they have been stuck in the same temperature range for days on end with foggy conditions.  Foggy conditions in freezing temperatures creates a buildup of ice where the moisture has come in contact with something.  Here is a good example from a regional weather blogger, Inland Northwest Weather Blog.



There are serious weather concerns about this years Super bowl as well.  Ticket prices have been plummeting as it seems no one wants to sit in the cold and snow.  the NFL has even considered moving the game day if bad weather is expected, but there is a serious backlash against that by fans who have spent thousands of dollars on tickets, hotels, rental cars, tickets, and the like.



And finally, this picture from an online friend who is snowmobiling in the UP of Michigan.  Here they were at the tip of the UP looking at Lake Superior in the snow.



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