California Climate Theory

For the last almost 2 years our weather seems to have been stuck in the same pattern.  The west having a ridge and heat, from the plains to the east having a trough and below normal temperatures.  The term "polar vortex" came to be well known in the United States.


I am not so sure we can blame the "polar vortex" so much for this pattern.  In general I am hesitant to say how much influence man can have on the weather, but I think there are indications that this may be the case in the last few years.  No this is not global warming, or at least not in the sense that most people think with our carbon footprints.


The problem that I am theorizing about doesn't have anything to do with fossil fuels or our modern lifestyle, but has to do with the EPA and government regulations.  What?  how could government regulations change our weather patterns?  That seems ridiculous!  Well, maybe or maybe not. 


Before man entered the picture, the SW region was rather desert like.  Modern technology and mans ingenuity found a way to turn useless land into liveable, and more importantly farmable land.  The increased vegetation also increased the moisture in the air.  Plants do this.  It also helped retain the soil by anchoring it.  Good soil holds moisture too.  We turned many regions from deserts into gardens, from wasteland into farmland. 


This changed the climate.  It reduced the heat, over time, in the west, and allowed for more pacific moisture to come in and milder temperatures.  Moisture begets moisture.  The pattern was less up and down and more zonal.  The period from the 40s through the 60s saw some of the most perfect weather we have ever seen for growing crops. 


A few years back, and some folks may or may not remember this, the EPA made a ruling about a small fish.  They said to save this small fish from extinction, the water to the farms had to be shut off.  The farms died.  They dried up and the top soil blew away.  The dry conditions began to build and spread.  A heat dome developed over the dried out lands. 


The heat dome compounded the problem because now not only was it hot and dry, the heat dome pushed the weather patterns away from the area so the drought persisted and got worse.  The worse the drought got, the stronger the heat dome, and then the worse the drought, etc etc.  It has just built on itself over the last several years.  It is so bad now that some are warning that underground water sources may go completely dry, closing down major cities like Las Vegas.


We saw something similar to this in the 1930s dust bowl where poor farming techniques ruined the soil and nothing would grow.  Vast dust storms blew away the top soils and intense heat built in the region.  Water went away and the people moved away.  It took a couple of decades to really recover.  We learned that there is an interconnection between our farming and the weather.


The same thing is now happening in the west, and it is effecting the weather patterns around the globe.  Great floods occurred in the plains and Midwest as the storm patterns concentrated on these areas, especially north.  Record cold and snows have affected not just the eastern part of the country but other places around the world.  The amplified jet streams allowed for warmer weather and fierce storms to hit western Europe while eastern Europe got massive ice storms.  We saw snow in Japan and Egypt where it hardly ever snows.


This is certainly a condition we have seen before and something to be considered and looked into.  I doubt anyone will though, and folks like me will just get called crazy because there is far too much money to be made in the regulation of carbon.  Yes, man is causing climate change, but not in the way he thinks.

Winter, Racing, and Spotting

March has arrived.  The old saying is that March arrives like a lion and leaves like a lamb.  Judging by how this month is starting, we may be in good shape should the saying hold true.  Around 2/3 of the US mainland has some sort of winter weather box affecting it.  From Washington state to Washington DC winter is dominating the scene.  Record cold, snow and ice are still ravaging the country.

The west coast is at least getting a respite from it's drought.  Much needed major rains fell up and down the coast.  So much so that flooding has become a concern.  It isn't enough by itself to end the long drought, but it is a good start.  Certainly we all would like to see the drought out there end.

Last week NASCAR kicked off its season with the Daytona 500.  Weather played a huge role in the race delaying it for hours.  The weather there should be a wake up call (another one) for outdoor event operators.  They had 150,000 plus people out in the open with no shelter and a tornado warning heading dangerously close to the track.  Reports from the track through social networks like twitter described chaotic scenes of people running about looking for any kind of safety, and not finding it.  This was within a couple of miles of being one of the greatest natural  disasters we have ever had in this country.  Outdoor event organizers need to take weather seriously and have plans in place to execute should the need arise.  One of these days, it will happen.






This time of year, many counties in places that experience tornadoes (which is most) have their severe weather and storm spotter training courses.  These are usually about 3 hours long and give you a simple overview of what to look for and where to look for it when it comes to severe weather types and a quick overview of cloud structures that will help you identify possible tornadoes.  Find your local National Weather Service web page for times and locations in your area.  Severe weather spotters are invaluable in getting the ground truth of what a storm is doing that radar alone cannot do.  This can be life saving work while also allowing one to indulge in a passion for nature and storms.  




Storm Spotters are a little different than chasers.  Spotters often work with local emergency management agencies and are assigned locations from which they will report conditions back to the central office.  Their assignment is to protect their community from their post.  Chasers also do spotting and reporting, but they are generally independent of local government.  They could be media, researchers,     or general enthusiasts.  The main goal of all of these should be the same, the safety of the public at large.

Another Wild Week

I had talked about a pattern change last week and the pattern did indeed change and the Northwest was opened up to a series of storms that brought much needed rains to the region.  Maybe it was too much of a good thing.  Snows in Seattle stopped traffic, and rains in California brought flooding.  They will need a continuance of this pattern to get out of their long tern drought though, and especially in the southwest, that pattern will have to include them.  The drought there is leaving people fighting over water rights and asking the federal government to put the lives of people ahead of the lives of fish.  That is how bad it has gotten there.


The southern plains came out of its deep freeze and got to enjoy some spring type weather, and at least in the northern plains and great lakes, there has been some lessening of the bitter arctic air.  Snow systems still are hitting the area with shots of moderate snows and the piles continue to grow higher.  Chicago is over 5 feet of snow for the season and more is surely on the way.


The east was once again pummeled by a major storm that dumped up to two feet of snow and ice storms that caused power outages to hundreds of thousands.  Cities were once again left as parking lots as transportation became impossible.  At least folks in the southeast rebounded quickly back to warmer weather, but cold stays holding on in the northeast.


The coming week holds promise of a warmup in many areas struggling with cold and snow.  Rapidly melting snow on frozen ground though is a recipe for flooding, and that is certainly a concern.  Also with the warmer weather, the mid Mississippi valley could see a severe storm outbreak later in the week.  Certainly the ingredients are present and even 5 days out, the Storms Prediction Center has put out a notice on this possibility.


The longer range outlook going beyond next week is starting to look like a return to the pattern that we have had most of the winter with cold air returning to the eastern half of the country and warm and dry in the west.  This would mean more cold and snow in areas which want nothing more than for spring to arrive.


This I believe was in Charlotte NC during last weeks winter storm.  Traffic nightmares.


IN upstate NY, it was hard to find ones vehicles.



Even Buses in Virginia were snowed in.


Snow and palm trees you don't often see together, but there it was in South Carolina.

Pattern change coming?

Another brutal winter week has ended.  Winter storms, cold, and drought continue to plague the nation.  However, there does seem to be a glimmer of hope; a light at the end of the long dark tunnel.    A pattern change in our weather is beginning to take shape.  




Most of the winter, we have had a large High pressure on the west coast that was blocking weather systems from coming in.  They had to ride over the top into Canada and plunge back down into the US, bringing with it, bitter arctic air into the eastern 2/3 of the country.  This amplified weather pattern allowed winter to even invade the deep south this year.  Relief is on its way.


A weather pattern known as the pineapple express, because it brings a moisture stream from the Hawaiian Islands to the west coast, is taking shape.  From Seattle to San Francisco we are seeing the moisture pump in.  This is breaking down the high pressure and allowing more storms in and flattening out the weather pattern for the rest of the country.  For the eastern 2/3 of the country, it will mean a return to more normal type temperatures.


It is too early to tell if we will get a flip flop, meaning the east gets a warm high and the west gets cold, but many in the Midwest and east might get at least a temporary shot of some nice weather. 

This year, Spring will also mean flooding.  There is a lot of water stored up in the heavy snows.  Expect it and be prepared for it; especially if you live in flood prone areas. 



During the week there was a significant ice storm that left hundreds of thousands without power in Pennsylvania and Maryland.  Other areas to the south and west of there were affected as well.



Folks in the west are still dealing with drought.  At least some relief will be coming for the Northwest and central west, but the southwest will remain dry.



Other parts of the country, this might be the best way to get around.




We could still have it worse.  This is a video from Slovenia, which was devastated by a ridiculous ice storm.

A Broken Record 1/25/13

No I am not talking about the record breaking temperatures, or the record breaking snows or drought.  What I am talking about is how repetitive and consistent this weather pattern we have been in is.  For weeks on end this same pattern has persisted across the US.  It is like the needle is stuck and won’t budge, just repeating the same lines over and over again. 

For the younger folks who don’t know what a broken record that I am referring to is:

This next week again is Forecasting more of the same.  Extreme cold and snows in areas that already have had them, extreme drought in places where it has already been ridiculously dry.  Those of us on the cold side would like a little relief.  Can we swap sides for just a short while?  More record cold will be spilling into the Midwest and Great lakes with snow and high winds.  Temps will be below zero for several days.  Even places in the south are feeling it too.  Freeze warnings way down in Florida and a winter storm in Houston?

In a week or so we will have Ground Hog day, and supposedly the ground hog will tell us if this will continue 6 more weeks or if spring will come.  There is some weather truth behind the ol’ groundhog.  If He sees his shadow means 6 more weeks of winter.  What is really happening is that you have high pressure and clear skies in winter it usually means colder air.  If he does not see his shadow, spring will be early.  This usually coincides with warmer weather, which at this time of year is generally cloudy or foggy weather.  Plus, In the warmer weather there might be food to eat exposed which would keep Mr. Groundhog outside.

In Spokane WA they have been stuck in the same temperature range for days on end with foggy conditions.  Foggy conditions in freezing temperatures creates a buildup of ice where the moisture has come in contact with something.  Here is a good example from a regional weather blogger, Inland Northwest Weather Blog.

There are serious weather concerns about this years Super bowl as well.  Ticket prices have been plummeting as it seems no one wants to sit in the cold and snow.  the NFL has even considered moving the game day if bad weather is expected, but there is a serious backlash against that by fans who have spent thousands of dollars on tickets, hotels, rental cars, tickets, and the like.

And finally, this picture from an online friend who is snowmobiling in the UP of Michigan.  Here they were at the tip of the UP looking at Lake Superior in the snow.

The Forgotten West 1/19/14

Most of the weather attention this year has been focused east of the Rocky Mountains with the bitter arctic outbreaks and the big snows that have many places already passed their seasonal averages in only ½ the winter.  This week starts no different with another snow system whipping down out of Canada bringing a swath of 6 inch snows from the high plains through the western lake and into the Ohio valley.  That will be followed by yet another arctic outbreak pushing temperatures down below zero again. 


Meanwhile, in the west, severe drought conditions have set in.  It has gotten so bad that California declared a state of emergency due to the dry conditions.  Experts are predicting a very dangerous fire season as tinder is bone dry and could be ignited by the slightest spark.  This was the case in Southern California where some homeless men started a camp fire in the strong Santa Ana winds that sparked a fairly large wild fire that caused thousands to be evacuated and did damage some structures.


There does not seem to be anything soon that would spark a pattern change.  To relieve the drought conditions, it would take a lot of rain over quite a long time.  Remember two years ago, much of the plains states were also in severe drought.  That has been turned around.  I’m sure some areas would be glad to ship some of their excess snow to the west coast


This Wildfire picture taken by a friend of my sister in S Cal 1/16/14.  This was the fire started by homeless men camping.



Here is an interesting shot from Rio De Jeneiro, Brazil of the famous Jesus statue being struck by lightning during the last week. 

Snow on the 18th caused this serious accident near Lafayette IN






A little interesting News came out of China this last week.  Scientists have observed ball lightning in nature for the first time.  Ball lightning is very rare and little is actually known about it.  St. Elmo's Fire is a common layman term for it.

Scientists observe ball lightning

And we will close with this picture of Folsom Lake in California.  It is about 25 miles NE of Sacramento.  Notice how far the docks are from the water?  Yeah, the water is supposed to be at the docks.

Drought and the Blizzards

On  Thursday February 21st 2013 an Associated Press article written by Josh Funk went over the wires saying, "Climate experts say the drought affecting more than half of the nation will persist in the Great Plains and West through the spring and spread over more of California, Texas and Florida."

http://news.yahoo.com/drought-forecast-linger-spread-plains-west-171327123.html

Since that story went out, there have been two major blizzards in the plains Totaling over 3 feet of snow and major flooding rains in the southeast US with over 5 inches to even 10 inches of rain, with more on the way.  The western great lakes have seen snow totals approaching double their normal February as well as a couple rain events.   

In the article, it says we are at 56% drought in the US, which is actually down from 67% in the mid summer last year.  This is an improvement.

Drought itself is a situation that builds upon itself.  When you have a dry period, it dries the ground moisture.  This reduces the amount of water available for further precipitation, which further dries ground moisutre.  At the same time, the lack of cloud cover the available moisture produces increases temperatures in the region.  this also, in turn, reduces ground moisture further.

This month we have had a pattern shift in the weather.  This shift has set the stage for the two very large storms that have taken place in the great plains.  While some sit around and wonder what crazy stuff is going on to create these mega storms, and how these are disasters; in another sense, these storms are really a good thing.

What these storms are doing is replenishing the lost moisture from the drought period.  Sometimes these droughts are broken with a tropical system that gets stuck in the region bringing huge rains.  This isn't always the best as lots of rain in short times create flooding that washes away soils.  Having these snow storms is very beneficial.  The moisture contained in these snows will melt back into the ground, replenishing it with much needed moisture.

With increased moisture in the ground, we can have the reverse effects of the drought in place as greater moisture leads to greater rains.  Greater moisture will lead to more cloud cover and lower temperatures.  This could further help reduce the drought conditions, slowly returning the area to normalcy.  This in turn helps everything else, crops, cattle, food prices, the economy.

While I would not say that these two events alone are enough to be a drought breaker, it could be enough to start reversing the trends.  It is worth watching.  I wonder if these events will be taken into consideration of the released spring forecast in the article that called for further drought?   " below-average precipitation is expected this spring in most Western states and the southeastern United States.", is the prediction from NOAA climatologist Dan Collins.  What we have seen in the last week is quite the opposite.  Of course Spring has not really sprung yet.