Saturday, October 19, 2013

Forecasting or Fortune Telling?




Every day people read their papers, watch their TV news, listen to the radio or go to their favorite websites to learn about the future. They seek out people with certain special knowledge and inquire of them what they know of the future.   People want to know what is going to befall them so that they might be prepared for whatever is to come to pass.  No, we are not talking about tarot readers, or fortune tellers, or the horoscopes.  We are talking about weather forecasters.


Weather forecasting, I think, closely competes with prostitution as the world’s oldest profession.  Certainly the techniques have changed, but the overall strategy really has not.  While fortune telling seeks out special knowledge of the future through spiritual and mystical means, weather forecasting has always been a rather practical practice guided by experience and knowledge of the environment.


Even Jesus back in his days on earth used weather forecasting as a parable.  Mathew 16:1-3 The Pharisees also with the Sadducees came, and tempting desired him that he would shew them a sign from heaven. He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red. And in the morning, It will be foul weather to day: for the sky is red and lowering. O ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times? 


Modern forecasting is not much different than many of the old ways of prediction such as Jesus mentioned.  While we are much more technically capable and able to read “signs” that one could not in the past, all a forecaster is really doing is interpreting these signs and making an educated guess at what may come to pass.  Forecasters recognize the signs and trends and translate that as best they can into a forecast of future weather.


As we know, forecasters get a rap as being notoriously wrong.  Even myself in my forecast for my area today was looking to have cloudy skies much of the day and I wake up to bright sunshine.  Weather forecasting is said to be the only job where you get paid to be wrong.  While people do joke about such things, and it is true that forecasters can and will be wrong to some degree in their forecasts, they still are right more than they are wrong by a long shot.


Weather forecasters do need to be right more than wrong.  Weather effects so many things, from personal life to major businesses, from transportation, to construction, sporting events, and vacations, and of course, planting and harvesting.  Much of our life revolves around the weather and is affected by it.  This is why so many look to the forecaster.  They are trained to see the signs and trends, translating them into practical understanding for people.


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