Monday, February 25, 2013

Drought and the Blizzards



On  Thursday February 21st 2013 an Associated Press article written by Josh Funk went over the wires saying, "Climate experts say the drought affecting more than half of the nation will persist in the Great Plains and West through the spring and spread over more of California, Texas and Florida."

http://news.yahoo.com/drought-forecast-linger-spread-plains-west-171327123.html

Since that story went out, there have been two major blizzards in the plains Totaling over 3 feet of snow and major flooding rains in the southeast US with over 5 inches to even 10 inches of rain, with more on the way.  The western great lakes have seen snow totals approaching double their normal February as well as a couple rain events.   

In the article, it says we are at 56% drought in the US, which is actually down from 67% in the mid summer last year.  This is an improvement.

Drought itself is a situation that builds upon itself.  When you have a dry period, it dries the ground moisture.  This reduces the amount of water available for further precipitation, which further dries ground moisutre.  At the same time, the lack of cloud cover the available moisture produces increases temperatures in the region.  this also, in turn, reduces ground moisture further.

This month we have had a pattern shift in the weather.  This shift has set the stage for the two very large storms that have taken place in the great plains.  While some sit around and wonder what crazy stuff is going on to create these mega storms, and how these are disasters; in another sense, these storms are really a good thing.

What these storms are doing is replenishing the lost moisture from the drought period.  Sometimes these droughts are broken with a tropical system that gets stuck in the region bringing huge rains.  This isn't always the best as lots of rain in short times create flooding that washes away soils.  Having these snow storms is very beneficial.  The moisture contained in these snows will melt back into the ground, replenishing it with much needed moisture.

With increased moisture in the ground, we can have the reverse effects of the drought in place as greater moisture leads to greater rains.  Greater moisture will lead to more cloud cover and lower temperatures.  This could further help reduce the drought conditions, slowly returning the area to normalcy.  This in turn helps everything else, crops, cattle, food prices, the economy.

While I would not say that these two events alone are enough to be a drought breaker, it could be enough to start reversing the trends.  It is worth watching.  I wonder if these events will be taken into consideration of the released spring forecast in the article that called for further drought?   " below-average precipitation is expected this spring in most Western states and the southeastern United States.", is the prediction from NOAA climatologist Dan Collins.  What we have seen in the last week is quite the opposite.  Of course Spring has not really sprung yet.

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